Trump’s Belarus potash plan may have limited bite

Mining

Sep 22

US President Donald Trump’s proposed “massive” potash deal with Belarus rattled fertilizer stocks, but BMO Capital Markets says limited supply and costly export routes make the country an unlikely ...

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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTrump’s Belarus potash plan may have limited bite\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-09-22 04:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.mining.com/trumps-belarus-potash-plan-may-have-limited-bite/><strong>Mining</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>US President Donald Trump’s proposed “massive” potash deal with Belarus rattled fertilizer stocks, but BMO Capital Markets says limited supply and costly export routes make the country an unlikely ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.mining.com/trumps-belarus-potash-plan-may-have-limited-bite/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1989763427.SGD","symbol_name":"CPR Invest - Food For Generations A2 Acc SGD-H","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.mining.com/trumps-belarus-potash-plan-may-have-limited-bite/","article_id":"2669142604","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://www.mining.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/nutrien-cory-potash-mine.png"],"rights":{"source":"mining_highlight","url":"https://www.mining.com/trumps-belarus-potash-plan-may-have-limited-bite/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2669142604","pubTimestamp":1790023080,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"mining_highlight","name":"MINING.COM"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Analysts say logistics, limited supply and global pricing make Belarus an unlikely replacement for Canadian potash.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"mining.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU1989763427.SGD":"CPR Invest - Food For Generations A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2380233275.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE FOOD AND WATER \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0471298694.HKD":"BGF NUTRITION \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU1430597077.USD":"BGF NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0471298777.SGD":"Blackrock Nutrition A2 SGD-H","LU0345780950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0654597011.USD":"BGF NATURAL RESOURCES \"A4G\" (USD) INC","GUNR":"全球上游自然资源ETF-FlexShares","LU0612318971.USD":"BGF NATURAL RESOURCES \"A5G\" (USD) INC","LU2360106947.USD":"BGF NUTRITION \"A4\" (USD) INC","FTAG":"First Trust Indxx Global Agriculture ETF","BK4588":"碎股","LU0385154629.USD":"贝莱德营养科学基金A2","MOS":"美国美盛","NTR":"Nutrien Ltd.","LU0345781412.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0630314457.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0612318385.USD":"BGF NATURAL RESOURCES \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1989763690.USD":"东方汇理世代食品基金A2 Acc","BK4093":"化肥与农用药剂"},"translate_title":"特朗普的白俄罗斯钾肥计划可能效果有限","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MOS":1,"GUNR":1.5,"FTAG":0.6,"NTR":1},"content_text":"US President Donald Trump’s proposed “massive” potash deal with Belarus rattled fertilizer stocks, but BMO Capital Markets says limited supply and costly export routes make the country an unlikely threat to Canadian producers.\nTrump said Monday that the US was working to buy Belarusian potash for “substantially less” than it currently pays Canada, which supplies about 80% of US potash imports. He gave no details on volumes, timing or proposed prices.\nBelarus could resume supplying some potash to the US as relations between Washington and Minsk thaw, but those tonnes would probably sell at prevailing market prices rather than at deep discounts, BMO fertilizer and chemicals analyst Joel Jackson said in a note.\n“We expect those tonnes would be sold at market-based prices, not deep discounts, and in volumes unlikely to materially alter North American potash supply dynamics,” Jackson said.\nThe prospect hit North American fertilizer stocks after Trump’s announcement. Nutrien (TSX: NTR)(NYSE: NTR) fell about 2.3% Monday, while Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) slipped about 0.4%.\nSupply limits\nBelarus, one of the world’s largest potash producers, has rebuilt much of its export business since Western sanctions disrupted its traditional routes following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. But the landlocked country remains dependent on more expensive Russian logistics because European Union sanctions restrict access to Lithuania’s Klaipeda port.\nThat makes Belarus a difficult replacement for Canadian potash, which benefits from established North American transportation infrastructure and Saskatchewan’s enormous production base. Belarus produces about 12 million tonnes annually, split between granular and standard grades, while the US consumes roughly 10 million tonnes, predominantly granular product, according to BMO.\n\nTrump says Belarus potash deal in works amid Canada fight\n\nEconomics also work against Trump’s suggestion that Belarus could sell large quantities at steep discounts. US potash prices of about $350 to $360 per short ton at New Orleans have risen on strong demand and offer Belarusian suppliers competitive returns relative to other major markets, Jackson said.\nBelarus therefore has little incentive to discount one of its largest sources of foreign currency simply to capture US market share.\nThere may also be little uncommitted product available.\nBelarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Monday the country had redirected exports east and its potash production was already committed under existing contracts. Even if Western markets reopened completely, Belarus lacked additional volumes to supply them, he said.\nLithuania, meanwhile, has shown no sign of reopening the cheaper Baltic export route. EU restrictions on Belarusian potash remain in place, meaning additional shipments to the US would probably have to move through Russian ports.\nPricing pressure\nThe more immediate risk for Canadian producers may be psychological rather than physical, Jackson wrote. According to the analyst, the prospect of additional Belarusian tonnes could make Nutrien and Mosaic think twice before pushing North American potash prices materially higher, even if Belarus cannot supply enough product to fundamentally reshape the market.\nUS demand remains robust and BMO still sees room for further potash price increases. But Trump’s announcement introduces another potential source of competition into a market where Canadian producers have long enjoyed a dominant position.\nFor Belarus to seriously challenge that dominance, it would need substantially greater export capacity, competitive logistics and enough uncommitted granular potash to serve US buyers. These conditions, BMO’s analysis suggests, are not currently in place.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}