The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0302 GMT - China Merchants Port's pricing power could be strengthened by tight capacity at key terminals, say DBS Group Research analysts in a note. The Chinese port operator's terminals in China are close to being fully used. Tight capacity at Chinese ports could support favorable tariff negotiations from 2027, the analysts say, citing management. The analysts expect a 2.0%-3.0% average tariff increase at the Chinese terminals from next year, compared with recent 1.0%-2.0% increases. They raise their 2027 revenue and net profit projections by 1.0%-2.0%. Meanwhile, China Merchants' moves to optimize its portfolio could be a rerating opportunity for the stock. DBS maintains its buy rating and 20.00 Hong Kong dollar target price. Shares rise 0.8% to HK$16.39. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0141 GMT - Larvotto Resources has felt the recent softness in gold slightly more than its peers, says MA Moelis Australia. "This is potentially a function of its status right at the critical point of the development cycle, as well as some anecdotal evidence of the potential of the largest shareholder considering a sell down," it says. But after slipping to a five-month low, the stock's risk-reward is becoming more favorable, MA says. It has a buy rating and A$1.50 target on Larvotto, which owns a gold and antimony mine in Australia. "Our current valuation does not factor in the potential for further exploration success or any opportunity to monetize what appears to be a growing tungsten resource at Hillgrove," it says. Shares are flat at A$1.01. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0104 GMT - RBC's positive view on South32 is reaffirmed by a business update and strategy presentation that highlights the miner's rising exposure to base metals, planned production growth and simplified operating model. "Historically some perceived S32 as overly complicated with too many commodities and assets in different countries," says RBC. The stock was weighed by relatively short mine lives and low margins, as well as significant rehabilitation needs and high emissions intensity. "We believe the recently agreed aluminum transaction and S32's increasing earnings contribution from base metals driven by Hermosa, Sierra Gorda and Cannington life extension significantly transforms S32 and warrants a higher valuation multiple," RBC says. The broker reiterates its outperform rating and A$5.50/share price target on South32. The stock is up 1.2% at A$4.92. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0030 GMT - Oil declines in early Asian trade but remains above $100 a barrel as the Middle East conflict continues to squeeze supply. A particularly strong combination of geopolitical risks and physical supply disruptions continues to support crude oil, says Antonio Di Giacomo of XS.com in a note. The bias for prices could remain bullish as long as Brent remains around $109 a barrel and WTI above $106 a barrel, he says. An extended period of supply disruptions could raise transportation, production, and fuel costs, further complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, the analyst adds. Front-month Brent crude oil futures are down 0.9% at $107.82 a barrel, while front-month WTI is 0.9% lower at $104.87 a barrel.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)

2011 GMT - Natural gas futures post back-to-back gains as summer weather extends well into September, while gains are limited as the season advances and temperatures ease. Still, September heat is above-average and points to higher-than-usual cooling demand through the end of the month, Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. And with this week's storage report expected to show another below-average injection, buyers remain active, he says. Nymex natural gas settles up 0.8% at $2.919/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1958 GMT - Crude futures rise to their highest level in four months as supply worries increase with threats to alternative supply routes out of the Middle East such as the outage of Saudi Arabia's pipeline to the Red Sea. "Bias remains clearly on the upside," Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu says in a note. "The loss of this crucial alternative to the Strait of Hormuz can prolong the market shortfall and delay normalization, while dwindling inventories leave limited capacity to absorb further shocks." WTI settles up 4.4% at $105.83 a barrel and Brent gains 2.9% to $108.75 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1833 GMT - Precious metals futures settle lower in cautious trading ahead of the Fed's interest-rate decision on Wednesday. "Elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions and supply disruptions continued to fuel inflation fears and bolster bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this week, keeping the yellow metal exposed to downside risk," Naga market analyst Frank Walbaum says in a note. "A hawkish Fed could further pull gold down, while any soft messaging may ease bets on hikes and help the metal recover." Front month gold slips 0.4% to $4.291.60 a troy ounce and silver settles down 0.4% at $63.236 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1643 GMT - The U.S. exported a record 2.2 billion gallons of ethanol in 2025 worth $4.7 billion, and exports of the biofuel were up 12% in the first half of this year by volume and 21% by value, the USDA says in a report, noting growing global demand and reduced competition from Brazil. A number of wildcards--both positive and negative for U.S. exports--could have an impact the rest of the year, the USDA adds. Brazil could recover export market share if its production outpaces domestic consumption growth. In the U.S., producers can benefit from a tax break they couldn't previously use, although policy changes to increase consumption such as a nationwide E15 mandate could limit exportable supply and push up prices. Demand could rise further as countries respond to higher energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict. "Ethanol prices have not spiked like oil and gasoline, giving ethanol an advantage and encouraging higher blending as a method to reduce prices at the pump." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1553 GMT - Enbridge $2.55 billion Tallgrass crude asset purchase is a "logical extension of ENB'S Liquids Pipelines franchise," says CIBC's Robert Catellier. The analyst says that the transaction adds "highly contracted infrastructure" that complements Express-Platte while expanding the energy company's Rockies footprint to optimize light and heavy crude flows across its broader network "including shifting light barrels onto Express-Platte/Pony Express [crude oil pipelines] and preserving Mainline capacity for heavier Canadian barrels." CIBC raises its price target on the stock by C$1 to C$79. Shares are up 0.9% to C$67.62. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1510 GMT - The Iran war is creating sharply different fiscal outcomes across the Gulf depending on countries' ability to keep hydrocarbons flowing, Capital Economics says. Higher energy prices are more than offsetting limited export disruption in the U.A.E. and Oman, improving their budget balances this year. By contrast, budget balances are expected to deteriorate by around 2% of GDP in Saudi Arabia, around 5% in Kuwait and Bahrain, and as much as 10% in Qatar compared with last year. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1501 GMT - Saudi Arabia leads most major Gulf stocks lower, with the Tadawul All Share Index falling 0.9%. The Dubai Financial Market General Index declines 0.8% and Qatar's QE Index loses 0.5%, while Abu Dhabi's benchmark index bucks the trend, edging up 0.2%. The divergence across Gulf equities appears largely positioning-driven, with geopolitical uncertainty and shifting U.S. rate expectations encouraging investors to reduce exposure to higher-beta markets, says Milad Azar, market analyst at XTB MENA. Investors are favoring markets and companies offering stronger balance sheets, liquidity and earnings visibility until geopolitical risks ease, he says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1427 GMT - Precious metals are modestly lower as the market looks to tomorrow's Fed interest-rate decision, which is widely expected to be a rate increase. The risk of higher yields extends beyond the U.S., DHF Capital CEO Bas Kooijman says in a note. "Persistent tensions in the Middle East have kept oil prices high, sustaining inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that monetary policy will remain restrictive across major economies." Silver could find support in industrial demand, he adds, noting a rise in Chinese industrial output led by equipment and high-tech manufacturing. "Sustained strength in these sectors could support silver consumption." Silver for December delivery is off 0.1% in New York at $64.05 a troy ounce. Gold is down 0.5% at $4,331.10 a troy ounce.