Washington is likely to move slowly, but there are catalysts that could make it act faster than expected

What's coming from Washington that might rein in the top AI companies?

The hot topic right now is how to tap the brakes on the development of artificial intelligence - including whether Washington will jump in to do it.

The bottom line is that the Trump White House and the Republican-controlled Congress don't look likely to act soon, but there are factors that could make them move faster than expected.

President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson aren't pushing for quick action, so investors shouldn't get caught up in thinking that new regulation is imminent, according to analysts at Wolfe Research.

Investors "should take headlines suggesting a possibility of near-term legislative action with a big handful of salt," because "none of the bills floating around Congress are close to having the support necessary to get enacted," Wolfe analysts Tobin Marcus and Chutong Zhu wrote in a note.

While "some legislators' minds have been newly focused by recent developments, with dozens of members of Congress calling for some kind of action on AI regulation," reaching an agreement "that something should be done is a far cry from agreement on what should be done," wrote Marcus and Zhu.

The Trump White House is likely to convene a meeting of the top AI developers, and that may help Claude parent Anthropic, ChatGPT parent OpenAI and Gemini parent Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) with their "own efforts to coordinate on 'pacing the frontier,'" the analysts added, but Trump and his aides won't try to slow down the frontier labs "beyond what the labs are proposing to do themselves." The three top developers all expressed support over the weekend for slowing the pace of development due to concerns about catastrophic risks, such as the misuse of AI for cyberattacks or bioterrorism.

Both Democrats and Republicans will be "running on much more overtly AI-skeptical platforms in 2028," but there won't be concrete policy change until a new president is inaugurated in January 2029, Wolfe's team reckons. While Democrats hope to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate in this November's midterm elections, Trump would be able to veto any legislation that can't get the support of a two-thirds majority in each chamber of Congress.

Disaster or businesses could move D.C.

The earliest that new legislation targeting AI could get traction is December, when the midterms are over, according to 22V Research analyst Kim Wallace. But he said that it's more likely that congressional action will come in the first half of next year, although one thing that could move up that timeline is a "systemic catastrophe." Beyond the misuse of AI for cyberattacks or bioterrorism, developers have said they're worried about losing control of AI systems as well as serious economic disruptions due to AI.

The "business community, particularly banks and Big Tech companies" may be able to apply pressure on Trump and his aides and get them to take a more hands-on approach, said Evercore ISI analysts led by Sarah Bianchi, in a note.

"The administration did move on this issue last June - establishing a voluntary, up-to-30-day national security pre-release review of the most advanced models - after banks and tech companies raised concerns," Bianchi and her colleagues noted.

Trump doubled down on his largely hands-off approach in social-media posts on Monday after expressing doubts about the need for any guardrails on AI while speaking to reporters on Sunday. The president said in one post that the "only control or 'guardrails' that AI needs is a STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT, and the U.S.A. has that, in spades," adding that he and his aides "already have tremendous CRIMINAL and REGULATORY power over these companies."

Trump also said the thinks there is "a SICK conspiracy going on against AI and Data Centers, and the only one that is happy about it is China." Trump and others who oppose new limits on AI often have argued that China's authoritarian regime isn't imposing any restrictions, so additional American regulations could help Beijing's AI developers leap ahead of the top American companies.

The Trump administration "professes to be anti-regulation," but there are nuances to the current situation for AI, said Capital Alpha Partners analyst Robert Kaminski in a note.

"The effective White House ban of Mythos 5 & Fable 5 this summer demonstrated that export-control laws already provide an effective policy 'kill switch,'" Kaminski wrote. The administration, in fact, "seeks to mitigate potential national-security and cybersecurity problems."

Johnson, the House speaker, said on Sunday that Congress shouldn't impose an emergency moratorium on AI development even as he said lawmakers should show a sense of urgency.

"We have got to do this in a very thoughtful, deliberate way, and we have to do it with urgency. And I'm committed to that, as everybody else is," the Louisiana Republican said in a CNN interview.

Johnson told reporters on Monday that he expects a meeting with AI executives at the end of this week or early next week.

What bills are proposed so far?

The legislation targeting AI includes a measure that's being developed by Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a South Dakota Republican. Cruz said last week in a social-media post that their bill aims to "address catastrophic risks involving biological or nuclear threats." In addition, Cruz expressed a need for guardrails while stressing the importance of beating China in the AI race.

"We cannot stick our heads in the sand and pretend this technology isn't happening. We need guardrails. But America needs to lead. If China leads the world in AI, the whole world is in trouble," Cruz wrote.

Meanwhile, Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent who typically votes with Democrats, has backed a bill that would temporarily pause the development of advanced AI and permanently ban the development and deployment of "superintelligent" AI.

Another bill from Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Republican Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri promises to ensure there is testing and oversight of the most advanced AI systems.

The main U.S. stock indexes SPX DJIA COMP were losing ground on Monday, with the drop blamed on the AI industry's calls for a slowdown, as well as on rising oil prices.

The booming AI industry has been a major driver of the U.S. stock market's recent gains. It also has been helping to expand the U.S. economy, and so far there isn't evidence that it's causing the widespread unemployment that many economists have been fearing.

-Victor Reklaitis