Mortgage rates took the escalator up to 7%. Home buyers shouldn't hold out hope for a quick or significant move in the other direction.

No matter what metric you watch, 30-year fixed mortgage rates' recent spike is notable: over the past month, daily mortgage rates tracked by Bankrate are up 0.32 percentage point to 7%, representing the greatest 30-day gain since April, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Exact numbers vary across measures, but all point to more expensive rates in recent weeks: Mortgage News Daily's measure is up 0.3 percentage point to 7.17% so far in September as of Monday's reading. Freddie Mac's measure, a closely watched weekly survey released every Thursday, is likely to head higher this week after rising to 6.76% last week, up from 6.66% at the end of August.

Mortgage rates' near-term path is noisy, with the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates looming this week. "None of the factors propping up yields/mortgage rates have simple near-term solutions," says Keith Gumbinger, the vice president of mortgage information website HSH.com.

Mortgage rates' movements are linked to the 10-year Treasury yield, which on Tuesday morning was on pace for its highest yield since 2007, according to Dow Jones Market Data. "Long-term bond yields and mortgage rates have been having trouble declining for a range of reasons-chiefly inflation and record bond issuance," Gumbinger says, adding that other factors, such as Fed policy changes, also play a part.

Oil prices are among the near-term determinants of where mortgage rates head from here, says National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. Those have been gaining in recent days, with geopolitical unrest and the war in Iran determining the trajectory this year.

Beyond that, "the large and growing federal budget deficit will eat up capital that could otherwise go to the private sector, including the mortgage market," Yun says.

"The likelihood of mortgage rates declining measurably is off the table," he adds.

If mortgage rates were to move lower, the 10-year Treasury yield would show the change first. Keep an eye on the yield, particularly in the wake of the Fed meeting's conclusion on Wednesday. Its rise "now looks a bit stretched, having touched the 'round' 5% level Monday," says Barron's senior technical analyst Doug Busch. The yield could move back toward 4.75%, he says.