Weak Domestic Demand Continues to Weigh on Chinese Economic Activity

Dow Jones
2 hours ago
 

China's investment slump and consumer spending remained pressured by weak domestic demand, even as industrial production was buoyant, boosted by resilient exports.

Fixed asset investment fell 7.2% in the January-to-August period from a year ago, widening from the 6.7% decline in the first seven months of the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday. Economists had projected investment to have dropped 7.2%.

China's struggling real estate sector remained a key drag on economic momentum, with property investment down nearly 20% from a year ago in the first eight months.

Retail sales, a key metric for China's domestic consumption, rose 0.4% last month from a year ago, down from the 0.6% increase in July and missing the 0.8% rise expected by surveyed economists. On a monthly basis, the gauge dropped 0.13%, signaling dented household confidence.

However, China's industrial production, bolstered by robust overseas demand, surprised with a 5.2% increase in August compared with a year earlier, up from the 4.5% increase recorded in July. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had anticipated industrial output to grow 4.7% last month.

The production of lithium-ion batteries, industrial robots and 3-D printing equipment jumped by 57.2%, 34.6% and 29.9%, respectively, from a year earlier in August.

Tuesday's mixed data, combined with inflation and trade figures released earlier this month, suggest that a K-shaped growth path is becoming further entrenched in the world's second-largest economy, with external demand significantly eclipsing domestic demand.

While both consumer and factory-gate prices ticked up for August, those price gains were mainly driven by supply shocks, including rising energy prices amid renewed Middle East tensions.

Domestic demand remains sluggish, reflected in weak consumer durable goods inflation and a soft summer travel season, according to Citi. Cost-push inflation could create risks of further margin squeeze in some downstream sectors, Citi economists said in a recent note.

China's outbound shipments surged more than 20% in August on strong global tech demand, with its ballooning trade surplus anticipated to reach a new high this year.

But "tariff risks and the durability of the tech investment cycle are the key factors to watch to see how long this strength will persist," ING economist Lynn Song said last week.

It remains to be seen if Beijing will step up stimulus to shore up domestic growth in the near term, with policymakers instead focusing on executing existing policies. Should fizzling investment and consumption extend into the winter, Beijing may be pushed to act to reach its annual growth target of 4.5%-5%, economists say.

Focus is on the coming summit between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this month, though many watchers only expect limited tangible outcomes from the meeting.

"Our baseline remains that U.S.-China relations are likely to stabilize rather than materially improve or deteriorate: both sides have incentives to avoid renewed escalation, but strategic competition over trade, technology, and national security is likely to persist." Goldman Sachs economists said in a recent note.

China's headline surveyed urban unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August, from July's 5.2%.

 
 

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