Gasoline prices are rising, but it will be a few months before everyday Americans and policymakers know whether or not the latest spikes will lead to higher inflation.

With the conflict in the Middle East intensifying in recent weeks, prices at the pump are on the rise again, jumping 13 cents in just a week and hitting $4.32 per gallon for regular unleaded on Monday, according to AAA. Diesel prices were surging even more, averaging $6.23 per gallon, the highest average on record.

But whether the latest price spikes will lead to higher rates of inflation in the coming months is a complicated question-and will take time to play out.

It generally takes about three months to see a 10% gas price shock show up in the core personal consumption expenditures price index measurement, which excludes energy and food prices, says Bernard Yaros, lead economist at Oxford Economics.

For context, over the past month, regular gasoline prices have only risen 5.8%, but diesel prices are up 14.8%.

Yet even with a 10% gas shock, the effects are still very much on the "margins," Yaros says. A 10% gasoline shock really only adds about two to three basis points to the month-over-month increase in the core PCE, which rose 3.3% year over year in July. (August PCE data will be released on Sept. 30.)

Additionally, prices tend to go up and then fall back, so the net effect can be fairly minimal.

"It really has to be a sustained increase to really see a more broad-based pass through higher energy prices to other non-energy goods and services," Yaros adds.

So far this year, markets, businesses, and the wider public have been operating under the assumption that a resolution to the conflict in the Middle East was just around the corner. That's likely why there has not been as much of a price pass through to inflation beyond direct energy prices and sectors like air travel, which has borne the brunt of higher jet fuel costs.

But the latest escalation increases the risk that Americans may experience a sustained shock that could lead to higher price growth over time in sectors like transportation, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing.

Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, for example, remained shuttered on Monday after drone strikes.

As supply has tightened, the price of Brent crude oil has surged, sending gas prices higher.

"By around the holidays we should really start to see if effects show up or not," Charles Dayton, market research director at Dow Jones Energy, tells Barron's. "Still, looking at historical precedent, it looks like the worst of higher prices is yet to come."

Supply, particularly of diesel fuel, remains an issue. Russian refineries this summer have been heavily hit-so much so that Russia has temporarily suspended diesel exports, Dayton says. Refineries in the Middle East, which account for just over 10% of global output, have been severely curtailed as well.

U.S. refineries are already running "flat out" at 97% capacity when historically, full capacity is generally roughly 92% to 93% due to maintenance and downtime, Dayton says.

"Ultimately it's not sustainable at this level," he adds.

That's led to firmer diesel prices that haven't faded as much over the summer as regular gasoline prices. At the start of the year, diesel prices nationally hovered around $3.52 per gallon and peaked around an average of $5.64 in May. But they only dropped to around $5.21 per gallon in July before climbing back to a record average of $6.23 this week.

Heating oil contracts, which serves as a proxy for diesel, currently show the U.S. will not get back to prewar price levels until autumn of next year, Dayton says.

Predicting the extent to which higher diesel prices may affect consumers is challenging. The direct pass-through of diesel costs is almost nonexistent for consumers. It can indirectly affect a range of transportation costs and services and lead to broader inflation in the economy-but it takes time.

"It's highly likely that even since February, much of the price pass through has not been felt yet at the consumer level," Dayton says.

That's largely because contracts need to be renegotiated to pass on higher fuel prices to products. And diesel users often will hedge price moves and price in a shock like the current one-all of which makes inflation lagged.

Complicating the issue further is the fact that when producer costs increase, they typically are passed onto consumers. But consumers have become much more price sensitive, in part because incomes adjusted for inflation have actually declined over the last five months. That's prevented many businesses from immediately passing on the higher costs, especially because many expected the war with Iran to be short-lived.

That's led to lower margins and kept a lid on much of the consumer inflation. In fact, the consumer price index rose just 3.4% year over year in August, even as the producer price index climbed 5.4%. As the conflict once again escalates, however, there could be longer lasting pain for businesses. That could lead to more sustained price increases for consumers and show up in the inflation readings later this year.

The categories that will likely show early signs of pass-through inflation will be non-energy goods that have a lot of petroleum-based components, Yaros says. That includes things like toys, games, household supplies, and even furniture, he adds. Higher fuel prices can also show up in areas like water, sewer, and trash collection services, particularly at the start of the year when contracts are re-priced.

Beyond watching the inflation indexes, Yaros says the National Federation of Independent Businesses survey will likely help predict if higher energy prices will become entrenched.

Watch for changes in the percent of small businesses that are planning to raise their average selling prices. If there's a shift in the mind-set of businesses and they report they're no longer going to absorb increasing costs from energy, that would be a good leading indicator.