Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0958 ET - Oil futures are sharply higher with WTI hitting $100 a barrel for the first time since May amid increased military strikes between the U.S. and Iran and Houthi advances toward the Bab el-Mandeb strait. "The move is raising fresh concerns about the security of global energy supplies," Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com says in a note. "A sustained move above $100 in WTI would put renewed upward pressure on inflation expectations." WTI is up 4.1% at $99.95 a barrel and Brent is 3.8% higher at $105.10 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0954 ET - Gold and silver futures are lower in the wake of the report showing U.S. producer prices accelerating in August. The decline in precious metals comes amid a rise in yields to at least three-year highs, Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. Both metals have held the lower limits of their recent pullbacks, he adds. "This is a positive sign and suggests that yields may become less of a negative factor for precious metals going forward." Gold for December delivery is off 1.1% in New York at $4,411.70 a troy ounce. Silver falls 5.1% to $65.115 a troy ounce.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0926 ET - Kongsberg Gruppen is becoming a full-spectrum missile-led defense prime contractor, with favorable geographic diversification, Deutsche Bank analyst Sriram Krishnan writes. Rapid capacity expansion and an all-time-high backlog could help the company become one of Europe's fastest-growing and most profitable defense companies, Krishnan says. Meanwhile, margin upside remains relative to conservative management targets, he adds. The bank says the missile business should see around 40% compound annual growth to 2030 to become the group's largest business. This is complemented by 30% compound annual growth for high-margin air defense and remote weapon stations, and 12% growth for the high-tech underwater and space businesses. The bank initiates coverage of the stock with a buy rating and target price of 360 Norwegian kroner. Shares rise 2.5% to 306.80 kroner. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0923 ET - A further hike of the European Central Bank's deposit rate to 2.75% during one of the year's final two meetings is "entirely realistic", Eurizon's Massimo Spadotto writes. As things stand, one more hike should likely be considered the base-case scenario, even though it is by no means certain, he adds. "This remains heavily dependent on the trajectory of commodity prices, which are naturally influenced by developments in the [Middle East] conflict," the head of fixed income says. "However, markets have already fully priced in two additional rate hikes for this year; consequently, these moves should not weigh on the market per se but could instead potentially trigger a 'sell the rumor, buy the fact' dynamic," he says. The ECB raised its key policy rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0913 ET - After raising its key rate to 2.5%, hiking rates further would mean that the European Central Bank sees restrictive monetary policy as necessary, ING's Carsten Brzeski says in a note. The economy has proved resilient this year, but that is different from an overheating economy that needs restrictive policy, he says. "We still find it hard to see--amid public finance woes and surging bond yields--that the ECB would really be willing to add more fuel to the fire," Brzeski notes. The bank isn't likely to be willing to risk a recession to tackle what is still a supply-side shock, but the ECB has made policy mistakes before, he says.(edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0914 ET - Shares in London mining stocks are down in afternoon trade as Brent crude tops $105 a barrel and hostilities between the U.S. and Iran escalate. Higher oil prices will add costs to energy intensive miners who are some of the worlds largest consumers of diesel. Higher oil prices also raise the prospect of interest rate rises to combat inflation. This would hurt investment and consumer sentiment, and drag on demand for mined minerals and metals. Anglo American falls 5.4% while BHP's London shares are down 4.7%. Rio Tinto's slip 3.25%. Glencore slides 3.4% while copper miner Antofagasta falls 6%. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0906 ET - European energy stocks trade higher in afternoon trade as oil ticks above $105 a barrel. Brent crude trades 4.5% higher at $105.80 a barrel while WTI tops $100 a barrel after rising nearly 5%. The rally comes as traders assessed escalating attacks on Gulf shipping and renewed Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia. In London, BP gains 2.5% and Shell rises 2%. Norway's Equinor is up 2.4%. Spain's Repsol, France's TotalEnergies and Italy's Eni all rise over 1%. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0854 ET - Saudi Aramco could grow operating cash flow by around 30% by 2030, Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth writes after hosting the company at the Barclays Energy-Power Conference. The Saudi Arabian national oil company expects gas developments to add approximately $12 billion to $15 billion of incremental cash flow over the period, she says. Secondly, the company expects improved downstream performance to add up to $10 billion, she says. And finally, oil and gas production growth will contribute, with the company estimating that each additional 1 million barrels a day generates approximately $11 billion to $12 billion at the 2025 crude oil price, she says. Aramco has the opportunity to add 2 million barrels a day of additional production. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0850 ET - Another interest-rate hike by the European Central Bank before the end of 2026 is no longer a tail risk, J.P. Morgan Private Bank's Patrick Ernst says in a note after the ECB's quarter-point policy tightening. Driven by the latest escalation in the Middle East conflict, oil and gas prices have moved materially higher, bonds have sold off, and expectations for further central bank tightening have firmed, the macro investment strategist says. The ECB moved as anticipated, but what accompanied that rate decision matters more, he says. In keeping the door open to further tightening, policymakers made clear that an energy-led inflation risk is still very much in play, he adds. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0847 ET - The European Central Bank's decision to hike interest rates again, as expected, is a sign that inflation pressures have become structural, Joe Nellis at MHA says in a note. "The ECB has decided that the European--and global--economy is no longer facing merely a short-term inflation shock." Rates still remain below those in the U.K. and U.S., but the gap is closing, he says. This is worrying for the economy, with the hike expected to squeeze households and businesses. Still, the move looks necessary as inflation hit 3.3% in August and oil moved back above $100 a barrel, Nellis says. "An orderly resolution to the conflict in the Middle East would go some way towards calming inflation, but there are long-term ramifications that will endure beyond the end of hostilities." (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0802 ET - Saudi Aramco has the flexibility to rapidly increase oil supply, Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth writes after hosting the company at the Barclays Energy-Power Conference. The Saudi Arabian national oil company can increase its output to 10 million barrels a day in two days, and reach 12 million barrels a day within approximately three weeks, she writes. "This responsiveness gives Aramco an ability to add supply materially faster than new industry projects can be developed," she writes.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0631 ET - Oil prices extend gains, with Brent crude pushing past $100 a barrel as fresh clashes between the U.S. and Iran deepen concerns over supply disruptions and the impact of a prolonged war on the broader economy. Brent crude rise 0.8% to $102 a barrel, while WTI futures are up 1.4% to $97.38 a barrel. Traders now await the release of weekly inventory data from the Energy Information Administration later on Thursday, with a particular focus on distillate stock changes given the current tightness in global diesel markets. OPEC and the IEA will also release their monthly oil reports this week.

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