Casey's Earnings Beat Estimates. Why The Stock Is Falling 9%

Dow Jones
Sep 09

Casey's General Stores delivered another earnings beat Tuesday, but investors weren't entirely impressed. Strong fuel margins did much of the heavy lifting, while sales growth inside its stores slowed.

The convenience-store chain reported fiscal first-quarter earnings of $7.37 a share, up 28% from a year earlier and comfortably above Wall Street's consensus of about $6.78. Revenue jumped 24% to $5.68 billion, topping estimates of roughly $5.56 billion.

Shares tumbled more than 8.52% in late trading following the report. The stock entered earnings after a run up of roughly 37% this year through Friday, although it had lost about 11% over the previous month.

The results showed why investors have liked Casey's. Fuel gross profit rose nearly 20% as margins climbed to 47.8 cents a gallon from 41 cents a year ago, more than offsetting a 0.3% decline in same-store gallons. Prepared-food and dispensed-beverage same-store sales rose 4.8%, led by increased foot traffic and whole-pizza sales.

Still, there were reasons for caution. Overall inside same-store sales increased 3.2%, but that growth is down from 4.3% a year earlier. Operating expenses rose 8% as store growth, higher credit-card fees, and elevated labor rates added to costs.

Casey's also left its fiscal-year outlook unchanged, including growth in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of 8% to 10% and inside same-store sales growth of 2% to 5%.

Investors will be watching whether elevated fuel margins can persist and whether food sales can accelerate. Casey's recently laid out a three-year plan focused on food and beverages, efficiency, and adding at least 400 stores.

The company also said integration of Fikes Wholesale, the $1.15 billion acquisition that added 198 CEFCO convenience stores primarily in Texas, is running ahead of schedule. Casey's expects the deal to generate roughly $45 million in annual synergies as it expands CEFCO's prepared-food offerings, including Casey's pizza.

That growth story remains intact. But after the stock's strong run, investors appear to be demanding more than another earnings beat.

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