Lagarde's Expected Remarks on Inflation Could Show Direction of ECB Rate Path

Dow Jones
8 hours ago

0546 GMT - The key questions for markets at the European Central Bank's Thursday meeting is whether the broadly anticipated 25-basis-point hike, following the first increase in June, marks the conclusion of a brief, precautionary tightening of monetary policy or the transition to a longer rising cycle, Royal London Asset Management's Wolfgang Bauer says in a note. "Important clues about the direction of policy may come from whether [President Christine] Lagarde emphasizes energy-driven headline inflation or the recent moderation in core and services inflation," the fund manager says. Rising long-end government bond yields, in particular, are already tightening financial conditions and doing much of the ECB's work, he says. "Unless inflationary pressures broaden materially, I would therefore find a longer, more aggressive hiking cycle difficult to justify."

 

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