Quantum is Years from Maturity but Already Going Mainstream

Dow Jones
Yesterday

Between the media buzz and roaring government endorsements, it's impossible to ignore quantum computing. But the clearest sign yet that the technology has gone mainstream with investors is that people are willing to bet money on it.

Clients of one major bank are clamoring to understand quantum computing. BofA Securities analysts on Thursday released a massive "quantum dictionary" with definitions for 30 key terms, promising to answer every question investors were afraid to ask.

"The whole topic defies logic and challenges our understanding of science," analysts wrote. "This technology can perform endless complex calculations instantly, advancing human knowledge at warp speed."

BofA has long been bullish on quantum, referring to it last year as "the next fire moment," meaning the biggest technological revolution in hundreds of thousands of years. It might sound like hyperbole, but quantum is poised to redefine information processing and usher in a new computing paradigm.

Quantum computing harnesses the rules of quantum mechanics-the study of physics at small scales-to solve problems. Unlike classical machines, quantum computers can process many possibilities simultaneously, potentially making them better suited to certain complex mathematical problems.

The BofA primer comes at the right time. Just on Tuesday, quantum stocks were thrust into the spotlight when Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantinuum confirmed they had finalized agreements with the U.S. Commerce Department for $100 million each in federal funding. In exchange, the government is taking non-controlling minority equity stakes in each company.

The strategy mirrors the government's playbook in chips and critical minerals, locking down supply chains and keeping the technology on home turf. That policy push is already driving commercial behavior, with BofA analysts noting that government mandates and grants are now the single largest catalyst behind rising enterprise quantum budgets, according to surveys.

The firm has witnessed the technology moving up corporate agendas: since 2023, quantum research and development budgets have nearly doubled, analysts wrote, with more than half of respondents to a survey either exploring or investing in it.

Since the release of Google's Willow chip at the end of 2024, analysts noted, a basket of quantum computing stocks has nearly doubled against a 25% gain in the S&P 500. There has also been a flood of new market entrants: Sensing investor appetite, more than half a dozen pure-play quantum companies have gone public this year.

"AI was just the preview," BofA analysts wrote on Thursday, dubbing quantum "the most radical technology ever." It's an easily digestible framing for a new and often misunderstood technology. While ChatGPT boasts one of the fastest user adoption rates in history, BofA believes rapid breakthroughs are shrinking quantum's commercial timeline at an even faster rate and accelerating market readiness even faster than AI did.

It may be too early to call the ultimate winners and losers, especially as investors struggle to value the newest public market entrants. More broadly, however, the technology is approaching a tipping point.

Near the top of the latest note, BofA poses a question: will quantum computing be "the biggest revolution humanity faces?" The answer: a resounding "yes!"

 

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