Health Care Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Sep 09

The latest Market Talks covering the Health Care sector. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0417 ET - Novartis's latest clinical-trial failure suggests the company might need more dealmaking to deliver on its ambition for steady growth beyond 2030, Jefferies analysts say in a research note. The Swiss drugmaker maintained its 2025-30 sales guidance as it said its neuromuscular drug del-desiran missed the main goal in a late-stage study. However, no comment was provided on the ambition to grow by mid-single percentage digits beyond 2030, the analysts say. Even with the recent success of a new multiple-sclerosis pill, it will be challenging to get confidence on the company's growth for the 2030s without del-desiran and del-brax, two drugs Novartis acquired from Avidity Biosciences, Jefferies says. As a result, dealmaking will likely remain part of Novartis's story, the analysts add. Shares fall 10%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0259 ET - Sandoz Group's roadmap for the years ahead is likely to be well received by investors, Vontobel's Stefan Schneider says in a research note. The Swiss maker of generic medicines confirmed its 2028 outlook, set out new 2030 guidance that is ahead of Vontobel's estimates, and projected an acceleration in growth through 2035, the analyst says. The company aims to more than double net sales by 2035 relative to 2025, supported by plans to have 100 biosimilars--copycat biologic drugs--in its portfolio by 2040. "Biosimilars are key to Sandoz, as they drive growth and margins, while generics provide the necessary cash generation. With many biologics set to lose patent protection in the coming years, the market opportunity is considerable," Schneider says. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0246 ET - Novartis just suffered its second major pipeline setback in the past week after a drug candidate it acquired through its recent $12 billion Avidity Biosciences deal failed in a late-stage study, Vontobel's Stefan Schneider says in a research note. News that experimental drug del-desiran missed the goal in a trial for neuromuscular disease myotonic dystrophy type 1 comes after the Swiss pharmaceutical company last week reported disappointing results for cardiovascular medicine pelacarsen. Vontobel had forecast annual peak sales from del-desiran at $3 billion, with a 50% chance of reaching them, and now removes this forecast from its model. As a result, Vontobel cuts its target price on Novartis stock to 125 Swiss francs from 128 francs. Novartis shares closed at 125.46 francs on Monday. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0042 ET - Otsuka Holdings' revenue growth from wholly owned products is likely to help boost profitability, Jefferies analysts say in a note. Consensus appears to be underestimating the margin impact of an improving product mix, the U.S. bank says. Voyxact, a kidney disease drug, and other wholly-owned assets are replacing partnered products as the Japanese pharmaceutical company's main revenue drivers, Jefferies says. As this transition continues, the bank expects profit to grow faster than revenue. Jefferies raises its target price on Otsuka to 14,000 yen from Y12,700. Shares are 0.3% higher at Y11,770.

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