Why Bond Yields are Surging Again

Dow Jones
Yesterday

Government bond yields are climbing around the world again, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note moving closer to 5%. Here are some of forces driving them higher today:

-- Rising oil prices. Higher oil prices could feed into overall inflation and push central banks to raise rates. Some analysts believe that bond traders aren't thinking too deeply about the connection-they're just selling when oil goes up. Brent crude was up more than 3% in recent trading.

-- Today's inflation data. Wholesale level prices sped up last month, and components that feed into Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric were generally firmer than expected. That fueled bets that the Fed will raise rates next week.

-- Higher rates in Europe. The European Central Bank raised rates and hinted that there could be more to come. That pushed European bond yields higher and put further pressure on U.S. Treasurys.

-- Trump's $5,000 promise. Bond investors are skeptical that Trump will be able to deliver on his promise to give Americans $5,000 if Republicans win the midterms, but they say the notion of more fiscal stimulus can't be completely dismissed. That could drive inflation even higher and increase the budget deficit. Both weigh on bonds.

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