Health Care Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Sep 08

The latest Market Talks covering the Health Care sector. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0817 GMT - Novartis's latest clinical-trial failure suggests the company might need more dealmaking to deliver on its ambition for steady growth beyond 2030, Jefferies analysts say in a research note. The Swiss drugmaker maintained its 2025-30 sales guidance as it said its neuromuscular drug del-desiran missed the main goal in a late-stage study. However, no comment was provided on the ambition to grow by mid-single percentage digits beyond 2030, the analysts say. Even with the recent success of a new multiple-sclerosis pill, it will be challenging to get confidence on the company's growth for the 2030s without del-desiran and del-brax, two drugs Novartis acquired from Avidity Biosciences, Jefferies says. As a result, dealmaking will likely remain part of Novartis's story, the analysts add. Shares fall 10%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0659 GMT - Sandoz Group's roadmap for the years ahead is likely to be well received by investors, Vontobel's Stefan Schneider says in a research note. The Swiss maker of generic medicines confirmed its 2028 outlook, set out new 2030 guidance that is ahead of Vontobel's estimates, and projected an acceleration in growth through 2035, the analyst says. The company aims to more than double net sales by 2035 relative to 2025, supported by plans to have 100 biosimilars--copycat biologic drugs--in its portfolio by 2040. "Biosimilars are key to Sandoz, as they drive growth and margins, while generics provide the necessary cash generation. With many biologics set to lose patent protection in the coming years, the market opportunity is considerable," Schneider says. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0646 GMT - Novartis just suffered its second major pipeline setback in the past week after a drug candidate it acquired through its recent $12 billion Avidity Biosciences deal failed in a late-stage study, Vontobel's Stefan Schneider says in a research note. News that experimental drug del-desiran missed the goal in a trial for neuromuscular disease myotonic dystrophy type 1 comes after the Swiss pharmaceutical company last week reported disappointing results for cardiovascular medicine pelacarsen. Vontobel had forecast annual peak sales from del-desiran at $3 billion, with a 50% chance of reaching them, and now removes this forecast from its model. As a result, Vontobel cuts its target price on Novartis stock to 125 Swiss francs from 128 francs. Novartis shares closed at 125.46 francs on Monday. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0442 GMT - Otsuka Holdings' revenue growth from wholly owned products is likely to help boost profitability, Jefferies analysts say in a note. Consensus appears to be underestimating the margin impact of an improving product mix, the U.S. bank says. Voyxact, a kidney disease drug, and other wholly-owned assets are replacing partnered products as the Japanese pharmaceutical company's main revenue drivers, Jefferies says. As this transition continues, the bank expects profit to grow faster than revenue. Jefferies raises its target price on Otsuka to 14,000 yen from Y12,700. Shares are 0.3% higher at Y11,770. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

1435 GMT - AstraZeneca is opening a new treatment paradigm in breast cancer with its Etcamah drug, which just got the green light from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Jefferies analysts say. This is arguably one of the most important approvals in breast cancer of the recent past, the analysts say. The FDA is validating an entire new treatment paradigm based on intervention guided by testing to detect a mutation that makes tumors resistant to treatment, before observing the disease progress through X-ray scans, they add. While Etcamah's approval matters clinically, it is authorized for a subset of the overall breast-cancer patient population for now, limiting its commercial benefit, Jefferies says. Shares rise 0.5%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

1414 GMT - AstraZeneca's approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for breast-cancer drug Etcamah might be more important for investor sentiment than for its top line, Citi analysts write in a research note. The approval opens up a relatively modest opportunity compared with the much bigger market in an earlier stage of treatment that is being assessed in another trial, the analysts say. Citi estimates peak annual sales for Etcamah in each indication at $450 million and $6 billion, respectively. Nevertheless, getting green light from the FDA should be good for sentiment, the analysts add. Shares rise 0.9%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

1330 GMT - Spire Healthcare shareholders are likely to accept the 1.03 billion-pound takeover offer from the Toscafund consortium, RBC analysts Natalia Webster and Charles Weston write. The U.K. hospital operator agreed to the 250 pence-a-share offer after months of talks between the companies. RBC cuts its target price on the stock to match the offer price, and lowers its rating to sector perform from outperform. Its previous target price was 300 pence. Shares are up 3.15% at 245.50 pence and 47% higher over the year to date. (ian.walker@wsj.com)

0925 GMT - Novartis's heart-trial failure means investors' attention now shifts to upcoming results from another late-stage study of a drug acquired as part of the company's $12 billion Avidity Biosciences deal, Jefferies analysts say in a research note. To justify the price of the Avidity deal, the trial needs to work, the analysts say. The study of experimental drug del-desiran for the treatment of neuromuscular condition myotonic dystrophy type 1 measures how long it takes patients to open their hand after releasing a grip. Regarding the drug's safety, anemia and stroke risks will be in focus, according to Jefferies. Novartis shares fall 3.2%.

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