Hong Kong's retail sector outperformed expectations in the first half of 2026, recording sales of approximately HK$203 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%.

Riding on this robust momentum, Deloitte China has revised its full-year retail sales projection for Hong Kong upward to HK$412 billion, representing an 8.4% annual growth rate, with an anticipated 7% expansion in the second half of the year.

Deloitte China's Hong Kong consumer business leader, Ringo Cheng, noted that anticipated improvements in the local property market are likely to bolster spending power among high-net-worth individuals. Combined with a dense calendar of major events and festive celebrations, the city is expected to draw more international visitors, further stimulating consumption.

Deloitte projects growth across all key retail categories for the year. Jewellery, watches, clocks, and valuable gifts are forecast to reach HK$60 billion (up 15.4%); clothing and footwear are projected at HK$50 billion (up 16.3%); pharmaceuticals and cosmetics are expected to hit HK$40 billion (up 11.1%); and durable consumer goods are seen reaching HK$68 billion (up 15.3%).

High-value product segments are poised to benefit most from the tourism revival and wealth effects, while cross-border spending by mainland Chinese visitors will continue to support growth in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and durable goods.

Deloitte expects annual visitor arrivals to increase by 18% to 59 million, with 46 million coming from mainland China. Cheng believes that to convert first-half gains into lasting momentum, retailers should concentrate on three strategic priorities: democratising luxury, enhancing customer value, and refining cross-border pricing strategies.

Deloitte China's strategic account services leader, Kevin Wu, stated that China is expected to maintain its leading position in the global luxury goods market in 2026, with 19.3% of surveyed executives projecting the country to be the primary driver of luxury consumption, underscoring its structural growth potential amid increasingly discerning consumers.