Looking back at the corn market in August, one key takeaway stands out: it was a case of "strong expectations, weak reality," with basis levels falling sharply. Looking ahead to September, the central focus shifts to the pace of inventory accumulation at northern ports.

Based on data from Mysteel and various assumptions, with the implicit premise that logistics and weather conditions remain normal, here are the projections: port arrivals are expected to operate at 85% of last year's volume from October through December, while port shipments are projected to run at 80% of the same period last year. According to last year's data, the average monthly shipments from the four major ports during October-December this year are estimated at 1.92 million tonnes, compared with 2.68 million tonnes during the same period last year—a year-on-year decline of 28%. Considering the volume of substitute products available in the fourth quarter, we believe that average monthly shipments of 1.92 million tonnes from the four ports will not lead to inventory tightness in South China or East China.

In summary, northern port inventories are set to evolve as follows in the coming period: as the chart below illustrates, inventories at the four northern ports are expected to begin rising after October 7, with an accelerated pace of accumulation. By December, northern port inventories will reach historically high levels, though still below the peaks seen in 2020 and 2024.

We would like to reiterate that the above conclusions are all derived from the current assumptions and will be dynamically adjusted as conditions evolve. If you have any questions, we welcome your feedback and look forward to further discussion.

Additionally, one more point worth highlighting: given the current corn inter-month spread structure, market participants will continue to engage in calendar spreads (buying the basis). The most significant impact of this behavior is the sustained accumulation of warehouse receipts. Considering the seasonal production and year-round sales characteristics of corn, along with the crop marketing year timeframe (October through September), we believe the May contract next year could be one of the largest delivery months for corn, with warehouse receipt volumes likely reaching their peak during this period.