Daiwa has released a research report indicating that management of SINOTRUK (03808) participated in the firm's non-deal roadshow the previous day (7th). The brokerage perceives robust overseas demand and anticipates further market share expansion between 2026 and 2028. Consequently, Daiwa has elevated its rating from "Outperform" to "Buy" and substantially increased the 12-month price target from HK$29.4 to HK$49.2.

Reflecting the vigorous overseas demand and the potential for additional market share gains, Daiwa has raised its 2026 and 2027 revenue projections by 17% to 20%. The firm's earnings per share estimates for 2026 through 2028 are positioned 5% above market consensus.

The report cites management guidance indicating that 2026 industry-wide domestic heavy-duty truck sales are projected at approximately 800,000 to 850,000 units, with overseas sales exceeding 400,000 units. The company targets a domestic market share of around 19% and overseas sales surpassing 200,000 units. For 2027, domestic sales are anticipated to remain flat year-over-year, while overseas sales are expected to show significant growth, with the company aiming for double-digit year-over-year growth in international markets.

Following the mandatory installation of automatic emergency braking systems starting in July, some demand was pulled forward into the second quarter, leading to weaker sales in July. Management expects quarterly sales to recover sequentially in the fourth quarter.

Regarding electric trucks, the company sold approximately 25,000 units in the first half of the year, marking a year-over-year increase of roughly 140% and achieving the top market share position in China for the first time. Management aims for electric truck operations to reach breakeven by 2026, with plans to export 1,000 units by 2027.

As of the first half of the year, Africa and Southeast Asia accounted for approximately 47% and 28% of overseas sales, respectively, followed by the Middle East, Latin America, the CIS region, and Australia. Management holds a favorable view of infrastructure and mining demand in Africa and Southeast Asia, while also guiding for year-over-year growth exceeding 70% in Latin America and more than 100% in Australia.