The energy market is currently defined by high geopolitical risk premiums internationally, domestic price adjustments aimed at stability, and mounting cost pressure on water transport. This week, US-Iran maritime tensions escalated, with the US military rerouting 94 commercial vessels and destroying five Iranian oil tankers. Iran established a new "sanctions zone," and through the Strait of Hormuz, an average of only 10 commercial ships passed daily. No Very Large Crude Carriers have departed since September 2nd. On September 11th, Brent crude settled at $107.09 per barrel, and WTI settled at $101.65 per barrel, marking a weekly increase of roughly 8% to 10%.

Domestically, on September 11th, China's National Development and Reform Commission calculated that gasoline and diesel prices should have increased by 435 yuan and 420 yuan per ton, respectively. However, following temporary government intervention, the actual increases were limited to 260 yuan and 250 yuan per ton. This translates to a 0.2 yuan per liter increase for 92-octane gasoline and a 0.21 yuan per liter increase for both 95-octane gasoline and 0-diesel. Filling a 50-liter tank now costs 10 yuan more, and a heavy truck covering 10,000 kilometers per month faces an additional cost of about 372 yuan. This year's price adjustment pattern now stands at "twelve increases, five decreases, and one pause," with a high probability of another increase in the next round. For water transport, sea freight rates remained broadly stable this week, with only one route seeing a 2 yuan per ton increase while all others held steady, showing limited pass-through of higher fuel costs. Meanwhile, marine fuel oil prices have surged to a five-year high, making the cost of a single refueling significantly higher than at the start of the year, intensifying the cost burden. Overall, the rise in international oil prices has not been fully absorbed by domestic freight rates, leaving water transport companies facing the dual pressure of high costs and shrinking profit margins in the short term.

The domestic coal market has defied seasonal expectations this week, with thermal coal prices breaking through 900 yuan per ton to hit a two-and-a-half-year high. As of September 10th, the benchmark thermal coal price rose to 988.75 yuan per ton, an increase of nearly 13% from the beginning of the month. Qinhuangdao Port's 5,500 kcal thermal coal exceeded 950 yuan per ton. The Bohai Rim Thermal Coal Price Index stood at 728 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan per ton week-on-week. Under high safety inspection pressure in major production areas, coal mine复产 has been slow, and output recovery has fallen short of expectations, keeping supply tight. This, combined with the early start of winter stockpiling, is supporting higher prices. For water transport, high coal prices have fostered resistance among downstream power plants, which are only purchasing for immediate needs. This has put downward pressure on coastal coal freight rates. On September 11th, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index fell 22.95 points to 778.52. Freight rates on major routes like Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou and Shanghai generally dropped by 1 to 1.6 yuan per ton. With coal prices rising but freight rates falling, shipowners' profit margins are being further squeezed.

This week, the wheat market continued its weak trend, with policy-supported purchasing providing the core support, albeit with very limited volumes. In Henan, purchases reached only 684,000 tons as of September 5th, compared to 7.067 million tons in the same period last year. In Anhui, only 139,000 tons were purchased by September 11th, versus 2.94 million tons last year. The policy-supported purchasing is progressing slowly and lacks scale due to strict grain quality requirements and the rejection of non-standard grain, which only stabilizes market expectations without driving prices upward. On the supply side, traders are shifting focus to autumn grains, accelerating warehouse clearance, leading to a temporary surplus of marketable grain. On the demand side, pre-holiday stocking for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day has warmed up flour trade slightly, with some mills testing small price increases. However, distributors remain cautious, and flour mills are only restocking for immediate needs, with little incentive to proactively raise prices. Looking ahead, wheat supply may contract temporarily after the large-scale autumn harvest, presenting a possible short-term price rebound opportunity. Nevertheless, given ample supply and a "prosperous season but not so booming" flour consumption, the rebound is expected to be limited. It is advisable to manage buying and selling pace flexibly based on grain quality. In conclusion, wheat shipping volumes remained low this week, with market activity driven by immediate demand, continuing the pattern of ample vessels and scarce cargo.

The corn market at northern ports remained largely stable this week. At Jinzhou Port, corn with 14.5% moisture and 700g/L bulk density was quoted at 2260-2290 yuan per ton, with a barge price of 2300-2320 yuan per ton, both unchanged. The main purchase price for new 2026 season corn was 2230 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton from earlier. At Bayuquan Port, corn of the same quality was quoted at 2260-2290 yuan per ton, with a barge price of 2300-2320 yuan per ton, and containerized corn at 2270-2290 yuan per ton, all stable. The main purchase price for new-season corn there was also 2230 yuan per ton. The overall corn market was stable with a weakening bias this week. Small quantities of new-season corn are starting to arrive at ports, while old-crop stocks at ports remain low, with market activity focused on self-collection. Buying intentions have improved somewhat, with downstream feed enterprises restocking as needed. However, theoretical shipping costs to southern ports are at a loss, resulting in few vessel cargo orders. In summary, corn shipping volumes remained low this week, with limited quantities leaving northern ports. Market activity is predominantly demand-driven, and a significant increase in volume is unlikely in the short term.

In the grain transport market, conditions in the inland waterways of Jiangsu and its surrounding areas were generally stable, with most route freight rates unchanged from the previous week. Only one route saw a slight increase of 2-3 yuan per ton. At major ports like Nantong, corn trading was sluggish with average transaction volumes. Downstream feed enterprises are primarily making need-based purchases, and with new-season corn not yet available in large quantities, market sentiment is cautious. The Yangtze River inland freight rate index continued to operate at low levels, with overall bulk cargo transport demand weak. The pattern of ample vessels and scarce cargo persists, and rates lack significant upward momentum in the short term.

On the upper Yangtze River, the average flow at Datong was around 35,800 cubic meters per second this week, with the Three Gorges outflow averaging about 8,620 cubic meters per second. Water levels in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze remained generally stable, and navigation conditions were good. Looking at the hydrological trend, the Three Gorges outflow has gradually declined from over 9,500 cubic meters per second in early September to 7,680 cubic meters per second by September 11th, with the reservoir level maintaining around 159 meters. While upstream inflow has decreased, flow in the middle and lower reaches remains ample, posing no significant constraint on vessel navigation and turnaround efficiency. Freight rates in this region continue to face a well-supplied dispatchable fleet, maintaining the high-vessel, low-cargo dynamic. On the Yangtze River Estuary-Chongqing route, demand for grain and various bulk and sundry cargo has plummeted this week. Despite the factor of rising oil prices, this has not countered the downward trend. Some vessels are flexibly adjusting their quotes to secure cargo, putting pressure on grain freight rates.

The containerized grain transport market from the Yangtze River Estuary to Guangdong and Fujian has seen developments on multiple fronts this week, with new businesses, partnerships, and facilities emerging. At Pizhou New Port, the first batch of grain containers arrived—143 TEUs of brown rice from Jiamusi, Heilongjiang, transported by rail container special. This marks the port's first grain cargo since launching its rail container business, signaling a new track for "road-rail-water" multimodal transport. Following the upgrade of its grain silos, Sanjiang Port successfully completed the unloading and storage of its first batch of 11,000 tons of corn on September 7th. This officially inaugurated an operational model combining small-to-large vessel transfer, immediate unloading upon arrival, and silo delivery. Compared to traditional river-sea combined transport, this new model saves approximately 30 days and reduces overall costs by about 10%. Freight rates for grain containers were stable overall this week, with prices on major routes from the Yangtze River Estuary to the Pearl River Delta, Fujian, and Guangxi remaining unchanged from last week. The market continues to see weak supply and demand, with no clear upward momentum in the short term. For specific routes: ① Yangtze Estuary to Pearl River Delta: negotiated price range of 1300-1400 yuan per container. ② Yangtze Estuary to Guangxi: negotiated price range of 1250-1450 yuan per container. ③ Yangtze Estuary to Fujian: negotiated price range of approximately 1500 yuan per container. ④ Yangtze Estuary to Northeast China: listed price of 1000-1400 yuan per container, with no specific negotiated range noted, remaining stable. These negotiated price ranges reflect actual transaction bands formed by differences in vessel type, container volume, and port operational efficiency. The freight rate center is basically on par with last week, though the negotiation range has narrowed.

The sea freight market for grain from the Yangtze River Estuary to Guangdong and Fujian saw a slight overall uptick this week, with most route rates flat. The only exception was the Yangtze Estuary to Dongguan route for 5,000-ton vessels, which increased by 2 yuan per ton to 74 yuan per ton. Market supply and demand show a small amount of new-season corn starting to arrive at ports, low old-crop inventories at northern ports, and a market focused on self-collection. Downstream feed enterprises are restocking as needed, but theoretical shipping costs to the south remain inverted, resulting in scarce vessel orders. At southern ports, the breeding sector is purchasing only what is immediately needed, with feed mills buying hand-to-mouth, creating a generally subdued trading atmosphere. Grain cargo releases are limited, and the pattern of abundant ships and scarce cargo persists, leaving freight rates without clear upward momentum and expected to remain stable in the near term. Rates at Xiaomo Port were unchanged this week.

In a comprehensive assessment, the energy and grain transport markets were both under pressure this week. The oil market carries a high geopolitical premium, and while domestic controls stabilize prices, marine fuel costs have reached five-year highs, squeezing water transport profitability. Coal has defied its off-season, with thermal coal prices breaking above 900 yuan per ton to a two-and-a-half-year high, leading to increased resistance from downstream buyers and downward pressure on coastal coal freight. The wheat market saw slow and insufficient policy-supported purchasing, weak trading, and low shipping volumes. The corn market saw small batches of new crop arriving at ports, low old-crop inventory, and inverted north-south shipping economics, limiting outbound volumes. The grain transport market overall is characterized by weak supply and demand, with the ship-surplus, cargo-shortage pattern continuing and freight rates stable or with minor adjustments across different routes. In summary, the pressure from costs coexists with weak demand, and significant market improvement is unlikely in the short term. With no clear incremental drivers across these markets this week, the focus should be on pre-holiday stocking demand changes and the pace of the autumn grain harvest.