Gold has been trading in a remarkably stable fashion recently, with no dramatic rallies or sharp selloffs, primarily because the entire market is on hold, waiting for the next development in interest rate hikes. The current rhythm of the gold market is entirely driven by the impending Federal Reserve policy meeting; before this heavyweight event lands, capital flows remain cautious, and traders are reluctant to aggressively chase longs or shorts, which keeps the metal locked in a consolidation pattern.
Despite the numerous bearish factors stemming from the current tightening cycle, gold has shown no signs of sustained decline and displays impressive resilience. This strength is supported by two major long-term forces: first, central banks worldwide continue to steadily accumulate gold, with this persistent hoarding demand solidly underpinning the price floor; second, the massive scale of US debt raises concerns about the long-term credibility of the dollar, and this medium-to-long-term buying power helps offset the downward pressure from near-term rate hikes, allowing gold to hold its key lows and avoid a deeper correction.
From a technical standpoint, gold is in a classic range-bound pattern. Short-term bullish and bearish forces are roughly balanced; any minor bounce hits resistance, while small dips attract buying interest. There is currently no momentum for a directional breakout. Although the strength of the short-term upside move is fading, support below remains solid, with no signals of a further breakdown. This suggests today's trading will likely see low volatility, with prices continuing to oscillate in a narrow band.
For intraday trading strategy today, consider the following approach: first, if the market opens with a dip, a long position can be initiated near the 4310-4325 support zone, with a stop-loss at 4290 to guard against a one-sided decline. The upside target for this long trade is initially the 4355-4365 resistance area, with further upside potential at the 4385-4400 level. Second, the near-term range around 4325-4355 appears to be the central trading band. Short positions can be considered at the 4370-4385 resistance zone, with a stop-loss at 4410 to protect against a sharp rally. The downside target for shorts should be the 4325-4345 region for an initial exit.
Looking ahead, gold is likely to remain in a sideways pattern for the near term, with the directional outlook hinging on the upcoming Fed decision. Should the meeting signal a more hawkish stance, gold could break below current support levels and initiate a significant new correction. Conversely, if the policy tone is more dovish, prices could resume their rebound and recovery. Over the medium and long term, the core supporting logic for gold remains intact—central bank purchases and concerns over dollar creditworthiness persist—so this pullback should be viewed as a temporary pause within a broader uptrend, not a complete reversal of the long-term bullish structure.
Domestic Chinese markets, including Shanghai gold and Gold T+D, are closely tracking international prices, with minor influence from the yuan exchange rate and physical gold demand. Their overall rhythm remains in sync with the overseas markets.