President Donald Trump has stated that the United States will eventually withdraw from Iran, but also left open the option of remaining and "keeping the oil," drawing a parallel to the petroleum arrangement established in Venezuela.

As of September 14, the White House has not published any formal policy documents detailing control over Iranian oil fields, the duration of any troop deployment, or revenue-sharing terms.

First Mention of the Oil Option

Speaking in Doonbeg, Ireland on September 13, Trump said the US would ultimately exit Iran unless it decides to stay and "keep the oil like Venezuela." He reiterated his expectation that the Iran war would conclude by 2026, likely after the November midterm elections.

Trump noted that Iran is seeking a deal, but the US would only accept an arrangement that meets its own requirements. He also predicted that gasoline prices would drop significantly after the conflict ends — a personal forecast that remains contingent on factors such as Strait of Hormuz navigation, regional production recovery, sanctions policy, and global demand.

There is no public information confirming that the US government has decided to take over Iranian oil fields, nor has it clarified whether "keeping the oil" refers to obtaining ownership, controlling exports, collecting sales revenue, or securing long-term low-cost offtake rights. The statement appears closer to a policy option floated by Trump rather than a finalized decision.

Iran Holds Roughly 12% of Global Oil Reserves

According to the US Energy Information Administration, Iran held about 24% of the Middle East's oil reserves as of the end of 2023, accounting for roughly 12% of global reserves. The International Energy Agency reports that approximately 15 million barrels per day of crude oil transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, representing nearly 34% of global crude trade; including refined products, total oil shipments through the strait approach 20 million barrels per day.

Since the US-Iran conflict began in 2026, shipping through the strait and Gulf oil production have been persistently disrupted. The IEA estimates Gulf states exported around 13 million barrels per day in August, roughly half of pre-war levels. The EIA projects that Middle East crude production suspended due to transport and production constraints could average 5.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Consequently, any policy shift affecting Iranian oil fields, export terminals, or Strait of Hormuz arrangements could influence international crude flows. However, Trump's remarks do not alter the existing legal ownership of Iranian oil nor constitute an executed energy agreement.

Venezuela Model Involves Controlled Accounts and Offtake Rights

The Venezuela arrangement referenced by Trump comprises multiple policy components. In January 2026, the US government began participating in the sale of Venezuelan crude, requiring related sales revenue to first flow into US-controlled bank accounts. The White House stated this design aims to oversee fund usage and shield revenues from judicial seizure.

The Treasury Department subsequently issued a general license allowing eligible US companies to engage in extraction, shipping, purchasing, selling, transporting, processing, and reselling Venezuelan crude, while imposing restrictions on counterparties, payment methods, and sanctioned entities.

In late August, the US announced an agreement covering 17 Venezuelan oil fields. The White House said the arrangement grants the US governance rights, economic interests, and low-cost offtake rights, covering more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves. These rights are implemented through a US-led private operating entity, accompanied by financial oversight and audit mechanisms.

On September 2, Chevron, Eni, and GE Vernova separately signed investment agreements to expand oil production and upgrade the power grid. The US Energy Department stated that Chevron plans to raise its Venezuelan project output to approximately 600,000 barrels per day within five years.

Thus, the "Venezuela model" Trump referenced includes US control over sales and settlement channels, expanded US corporate operations, and acquisition of governance and offtake rights — not a simple form of oil confiscation.

Iran Arrangement Remains a Verbal Concept

Whether the Venezuela model can be applied to Iran is currently unclear. Trump has not identified potential partner entities, nor explained whether the US would secure oil rights through agreements, sanctions waivers, military occupation, or other means.

The White House's previously issued Iran policy documents primarily address military operations, nuclear issues, shipping security, and sanctions measures. No Iranian energy governance framework corresponding to the Venezuela agreement has been published.

Until formal documents are released, Trump's statement should not be interpreted as "the US has decided to control Iranian oil." A more accurate reading is that Trump has, for the first time, publicly raised the possibility of the US remaining in Iran, with oil rights as a potential arrangement.