According to data from China's leading commercial vehicle information provider, the country's heavy truck market recorded sales of approximately 83,000 units in August (based on wholesale figures, including exports and new energy vehicles). This marks the second consecutive monthly decline, with a slight 1% drop compared to July and a 9.4% decrease year-on-year from the 91,600 units sold in the same period last year. Despite the domestic softness, overseas demand remains a bright spot, with exports from China's heavy truck industry continuing their upward trajectory—projected to grow by over 35% year-on-year for the month.
In the new energy heavy truck segment, terminal sales are expected to rise by roughly 35% year-on-year in August. However, this growth rate is noticeably slower than the 104% and 108% increases seen in May and June, respectively, and also trails the 59% growth recorded in July. On a month-on-month basis, sales in this segment are anticipated to decline by nearly 10%, underscoring a clear trough effect. Industry observers suggest that domestic new energy heavy truck sales are unlikely to see a month-on-month recovery until the traditional "golden September and silver October" sales season, though even then, the year-on-year growth rate is expected to moderate further.
August sales dip 9% year-on-year, but cumulative figures still up 16%
The trajectory of the heavy truck market in the third quarter remains clouded by uncertainty. Preliminary data from the commercial vehicle source indicates that August wholesale sales reached about 83,000 units, a marginal 1% decrease from July and a 9.4% slide from the 91,600 units sold in August of the previous year. This represents the industry's third year-on-year decline in 2026 and its first instance of two consecutive monthly drops this year. For the first eight months of 2026, cumulative heavy truck sales have reached approximately 828,000 units, a 16% increase year-on-year, although the pace of growth is decelerating.
The downturn in August wholesale figures can be attributed to a confluence of adverse factors: the typical off-season for domestic logistics demand, demand pulled forward by recent policy and regulation changes, a high comparison base from the previous year, and persistent weakness in the natural gas truck segment. Firstly, July and August are traditionally slow months for domestic freight transport, with extreme weather conditions—from heatwaves and typhoons to torrential rains—dampening end-user purchasing appetite. Additionally, the high sales base from August 2025, which was boosted by trade-in incentives for older National IV diesel trucks, makes the current year's comparison challenging. The inventory of such older trucks has been significantly reduced, contributing to the year-on-year wholesale decline.
Secondly, the market is still absorbing the impact of demand being pulled forward by the implementation of the new AEBS (Advanced Emergency Braking System) regulation. Combined with the weak seasonal demand, this has led to noticeable year-on-year decreases in both LNG and diesel truck sales, and even the booming electric truck segment experienced a month-on-month contraction. Thirdly, the price differential between oil and gas remains insufficient to stimulate demand. Consequently, natural gas trucks showed no signs of recovery in August, with sales projected to fall sharply both year-on-year and month-on-month.
On a positive note, despite the sluggish domestic market, overseas demand continues to surge. In August, robust demand from regions such as Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia propelled Chinese heavy truck exports to an estimated year-on-year growth of more than 35%.
Electric trucks shoulder domestic market, while gas trucks see declines
The switch-over to the AEBS regulation prompted a surge in truck registrations and licensing (for operating permits) in May, June, and the first half of July. As a result, the heavy truck market has been decelerating since the start of the second half of the year. Actual terminal sales in August are estimated to have plunged by over 25% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of around 11% to 13%.
The natural gas truck segment remains mired at its low point. Its sales trajectory is influenced not only by the seasonal buying cycle but also critically by the oil-gas price spread. Between July and August, the price of LNG hovered around 5.5 to 6.5 yuan per kilogram across various regions, showing little change. Diesel prices saw alternating increases and decreases, with the official price for 0# diesel around 7.6 to 7.8 yuan per liter. Considering that many private gas stations offer diesel at 5.5 to 6 yuan per liter, the economic advantage of gas over diesel remained negligible in August. Lacking this cost-effectiveness, and compounded by the mid-year lull and the demand pulled forward by regulatory changes in the second quarter, sales of natural gas trucks failed to reverse their downward trend. Terminal data suggests that August sales of natural gas trucks fell by over 10% month-on-month and by a substantial 65% year-on-year, reducing their domestic market penetration to around 11%. A genuine turnaround for this segment would require LNG prices to drop further, potentially below 5 yuan per kilogram, to allow it to climb out of its current trough.
Meanwhile, the new energy heavy truck segment, predominantly driven by pure electric models, is also seeing its growth momentum wane. In the second quarter of 2026, a combination of factors—including replacement demand from National IV and V truck upgrades, the AEBS regulation change, and oil and gas price volatility—sparked an explosive surge in domestic new energy heavy truck sales. This, however, pulled forward a significant portion of future demand. Consequently, entering the July-August off-season, this segment too is contending with month-on-month contractions. In August, terminal sales of new energy heavy trucks are expected to grow by about 35% year-on-year, a deceleration from the 104% and 108% growth in May and June and the 59% in July. Month-on-month, sales are likely to fall by nearly 10%, reflecting a distinct seasonal trough. It is anticipated that only with the arrival of the traditional "golden September and silver October" peak season will domestic new energy heavy truck sales see a month-on-month uptick. However, its year-on-year growth rate will continue to cool, especially given that terminal sales reached 24,000 units in September of last year.