On September 9th, market sentiment was influenced by renewed tensions in the Middle East overnight. First, Iran attacked Jordanian armed forces, followed by Houthi forces opening fire on Saudi Arabia. The US also threatened to strike targets near Kharg Island, shifting both sides from a state of stalemate back to active conflict. This rekindled market unease, with crude oil prices climbing most notably. Combined with this month's Federal Reserve interest rate decision window, these events intensified expectations of a Fed rate hike, which in turn exerted some downward pressure on gold.
After gold previously surged to resistance at the 4442 level the day before, it encountered selling pressure and began a steady decline. During the US trading session in the evening, it found temporary support around 4385-4390 before rebounding to the 4410 area, only to face renewed selling pressure. Subsequently, as news of the conflict weighed on sentiment, gold began to break down consistently. In the early Asian session, it extended its decline to a new support level near 4341 before stabilizing and staging a slight rebound.
From a technical perspective, after the sharp rally, gold has posted consecutive bearish daily candles, indicating a period of short-term correction is likely. However, with Friday's CPI report being the current focal point for bulls and bears, gold is expected to continue exhibiting volatile, two-way movements in the near term.
Looking at today's technicals on the four-hour chart, gold has retraced nearly $100 from the 4442 high, with oversold signals accumulating but the rebound lacking momentum. On the hourly chart, the KDJ indicator is repeatedly flattening at low levels, while the MACD histogram shows shrinking green bars, suggesting a technical corrective bounce is due. The key point to watch remains whether gold can hold the 100-period moving average.
However, caution is warranted; if the 4342 support is lost again, gold could trigger a deeper slide towards the 4300 psychological level and potentially enter a more pronounced downtrend. In summary, gold is currently experiencing intense tug-of-war around the 100-period moving average, caught in a stalemate between rate hike expectations acting as resistance and central bank gold purchases and a weaker dollar providing support.
Looking ahead, Thursday's US PPI and Friday's CPI data will be released, representing the final inflation puzzle pieces before the September FOMC meeting. If inflation data surprises to the upside, a September rate hike would essentially be confirmed, likely pushing gold below 4342 and towards the 4300 support on the downside. Conversely, if inflation shows signs of cooling, rate hike expectations could ease, potentially allowing gold to reclaim the 4400 level on the upside.
For today's gold trading strategy, it remains prudent to operate within the established range and wait for price action to develop:
1. In the short term, await a rebound towards the 4385-4400 area to consider initiating short positions, with a defensive stop-loss above the 4415 level. The downside target for short positions would be the 4365-4345 zone.
2. Subsequently, if gold retraces to the 4342-4345 area and holds this double-bottom support, consider entering long positions, with a defensive stop-loss below the 4320 level. The upside target for long positions would be the 4370-4385 area.
3. Additionally, if the price breaks above 4400, wait for the rebound to complete and monitor the secondary resistance zone at 4440-4445 before considering short positions. Conversely, closely watch the 4342 support level; if it breaks decisively, pay attention to whether the 4300 support can hold and potentially offer another long entry point.