Market data from the week of September 12, 2026 shows SMM 1# electrolytic copper averaged between 109,320 yuan and 112,495 yuan per tonne, with prices initially climbing before retreating midweek. Premium quotes ranged from 65 yuan to 225 yuan per tonne, with the market maintaining premium pricing for most of the week.

Inventory data for that week indicated LME stocks fell by 2,000 tonnes to 234,500 tonnes, while SHFE inventories decreased by 8,200 tonnes to 54,800 tonnes. Domestic social inventories (excluding bonded zones) rose by 2,400 tonnes to 87,500 tonnes, and bonded zone stocks fell by 1,700 tonnes to 38,800 tonnes. COMEX inventories increased by 700 tonnes to 767,500 short tonnes.

On the macroeconomic front, the US PPI for August rose year-on-year on energy gains, followed by a stronger-than-expected rebound in core CPI, reigniting concerns about persistent inflation. The euro area saw inflation tick up in August, prompting the European Central Bank to deliver its second 25 basis point rate hike of the year. This reinforced the anti-inflation stance of major global central banks, driving the dollar and treasury yields higher and increasing volatility across equities and commodities. Market attention now turns to next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting.

On the mining side, the imported copper concentrate index continued its decline to -209.7 US dollars per dry tonne, intensifying tightness at the mine level. Mine tenders remained active, with trades concentrated around a 25 US dollar per dry tonne index deduction. Smelters have shown reduced acceptance of deep deductions, increasingly opting for fixed-price contracts to lock in procurement costs.

Approximately 38,000 tonnes of accumulated copper concentrate from the Panama Copper Mine is scheduled for shipment to India, though this represents only pre-shutdown stockpile processing and offers limited relief to global supply. Domestic copper concentrate inventories at eleven ports increased by 34,200 physical tonnes, primarily driven by arrivals at Qingdao and Fangchenggang. August imports of copper ore and concentrate recovered month-on-month but remained down year-on-year, with limited near-term output from overseas projects despite some new capacity coming online.

Looking ahead, spot copper concentrate TC is expected to remain under downward pressure with no obvious recovery in the short term. Attention should be paid to mine tender results, port inventory changes, and overseas shipment progress. Smelters face persistent raw material cost pressures, while sharp declines in by-product sulfuric acid prices further compress profit margins.

In refined copper smelting and imports during the week under review, copper prices fell quickly after an initial surge as US tariff expectations cooled. By week's end, the import parity ratio had recovered significantly, with spot import losses turning into gains of 618.07 yuan per tonne. The import window opened briefly, though practical room to operate was limited given the approaching September contract delivery.

Yangshan copper premiums dipped then rose during the week, with holders firming offers after Friday's sharp price drop. Domestic bonded inventories showed divergence, with Shanghai destocking while Guangdong saw modest builds. Social inventories remained at low levels with slight supply improvement, though overall conditions stayed tight. Late-week price declines prompted downstream buyers to lock in prices, with inventories shifting from driving prices higher to limiting downside.

For the coming week, the repaired import window suggests potential replenishment of imported supply, though port congestion continues to delay deliveries. The SHFE copper market will complete the roll from September to October contracts, with expectations of strong premiums after spot quotes switch.

In scrap copper markets, prices retreated from historic highs. Domestic recyclable raw materials saw traders selling at higher prices early in the week, shifting to tight holding as inventories tightened by weekend. High tax-inclusive invoice points lifted procurement costs, with the refined-scrap price spread holding at 4,192 yuan per tonne, significantly above reasonable levels.

Recycled copper rod producers saw strong orders early in the week but quickly turned cautious as rising raw material costs threatened losses. Procurement sentiment remained subdued. Overseas, bright copper scrap maintained high pricing coefficients due to tight supply, while 1# and 2# copper scrap coefficients pulled back modestly alongside copper price declines. Sharp price swings suppressed overseas downstream buying, widening the gap between buyer and seller quotes, with import scrap deductions fluctuating accordingly.

Domestic traders hold low inventories and show strong reluctance to sell, suggesting raw material prices may continue climbing. Rod producers remain constrained by cost and invoice issues, with transactions maintaining a sporadic pattern. Overseas recycled raw material coefficients are likely to stay elevated, and attention will focus on overseas offers and arrivals once the import parity improves. Further copper price declines could stimulate incremental circulation of domestic recycled materials.

Among copper fabricators, refined copper rod plants operated at 61.49% capacity, up 2.37 percentage points, driven mainly by restarts at previously halted facilities. However, terminal orders remain insufficient, with raw material inventories falling while finished goods stocks rise. Cable and enameled wire operations saw utilization decline on high copper prices, with enameled wire new orders dropping notably and finished inventory pressure building.

Recycled copper rod utilization plunged 5.29 percentage points to 8.74%, as a widening refined-scrap rod price spread squeezed margins and Jiangxi discount levels expanded further. Brass rod utilization continued falling to 47.46%, with tight raw material availability forcing mills to maintain minimal inventories and buy only as needed. Overall processing fees diverged, with power cable and enameled wire rod fees dropping notably during the week while export processing fees held steady.

Refined copper rod utilization was initially expected to ease slightly, but Friday's price decline stimulated downstream price-fixing, raising the possibility of better-than-expected utilization. Cable and enameled wire sectors are likely to remain weak absent bulk orders. Recycled copper rods continue to face raw material and invoice constraints, limiting recovery prospects. Brass rod remains under pressure, requiring ongoing monitoring of how copper price movements affect order intake and restocking behavior at processing firms.

Terminal consumption has yet to see a full seasonal pickup, with high copper prices keeping most downstream buyers on the sidelines. Only after late-week price declines did some essential demand emerge for price-fixing purchases, without bulk order placement. Cable sector operations continue weakening as terminal customers avoid price risk, showing little appetite for raw material stocking and accumulating finished goods inventories. Enameled wire new orders fell sharply month-on-month with rising finished inventory days. Brass rod downstream demand remained limited to essential purchases with little proactive restocking.

Regional spot markets diverged, with Shanghai premiums falling sharply, Shandong and North China turning to discounts, while Guangdong premiums stayed relatively firm, reflecting regional differences in downstream demand conditions.

The traditional "golden September" peak season remains unvalidated in terms of actual orders. If copper prices hold at elevated levels, terminal purchasing will likely stay essential-only without large-scale restocking. Further price declines could attract more downstream price-fixing transactions. Key focus areas include cable and appliance order placements, spot premium changes as consumption validation, and the risk of peak-season expectations failing to materialize.

Overall, copper prices faced downward pressure from unresolved US tariff questions, stronger-than-expected PPI data, and ECB rate hikes, prompting profit-taking after the initial surge. Fundamentals show ongoing weakness in mine-level copper concentrate TC, smelting margins squeezed by falling sulfuric acid prices, and a briefly opened import window with limited delivery realization. Low inventories provide only downside protection.

Scrap copper markets are quickly shifting between tightness and ease, with recyclers cautious on costs and invoice requirements. Copper fabricator operations diverge, with cables and enameled wire weakening. The "golden September" terminal peak season has yet to fully commence, with only modest essential demand released on price corrections.

The Federal Reserve's rate decision will be the key macro event next week. Volatility is expected to remain elevated. Should a rate hike materialize, a strategy of buying hedges below 102,000 yuan per tonne is suggested, while shorting the post-hike decline is not recommended. Enterprises with selling hedge needs could place sells near 110,000 yuan per tonne.

Arbitrage strategies remain on hold, and selling put options is advised.

Key risks include weaker-than-expected peak season demand and liquidity disruption events.