JD's Food Delivery Faces Order-Splitting Scrutiny: Goldman Sachs Estimates 16 Million Daily Orders, Company Says Growth Remains Healthy After Subsidy Cuts

Deep News
Sep 09

Social media has recently been circulating screenshots from both consumers and delivery riders indicating that some orders placed on JD's food delivery platform are being split into multiple sub-orders after a single checkout. It remains unclear whether these divided sub-orders are individually counted in the order data that JD discloses publicly or provides to institutions — and this ambiguity sits at the heart of the matter.

Throughout this year, JD has consistently emphasized order growth and operational efficiency improvements in its delivery business. On September 2, Goldman Sachs published a research note following discussions with JD's investor relations team, stating that despite reduced subsidy spending and improved fulfillment efficiency, JD's delivery service still posted healthy month-over-month order growth, while per-order economic losses narrowed significantly year-over-year. Separately, JD management previously disclosed that its delivery business losses contracted by more than 50% in the second quarter of this year.

Given that order volume directly impacts market share calculations, fulfillment efficiency metrics, and per-order loss estimates, the way split sub-orders are tallied is far more than a backend operational detail — it has become a pivotal issue for investors and analysts alike.

JD's Delivery Market Share Hovers Around 7%–10%, Making Order Volume a Key Barometer

According to a Goldman Sachs research estimate published in August on the broader delivery industry, the average daily order volumes for Meituan, Alibaba, and JD in the second quarter were approximately 80 million, 66 million, and 16 million orders respectively, translating to market shares of roughly 49%, 41%, and 10%. However, estimates for JD's share vary across different institutions.

Analysys' second-quarter data put Taobao Flash Purchase at 45.7%, Meituan at 45.3%, and JD at 7.7%. Meanwhile, industry insiders cited by Guosen Securities in a July exchange indicated JD's June market share was similarly around 7%. Taken together, JD's food delivery business currently commands a market share in the range of 7% to 10%.

These order figures are the product of a price war that has raged for over a year. When JD.com formally entered the food delivery arena in early 2025, Alibaba responded by ramping up investment in Taobao Flash Purchase, sparking intense competition among Meituan, Alibaba, and JD over subsidies, free delivery fees, and low-priced meal bundles. Entering 2026, as regulators stepped up efforts to curb involution-style competition, platform subsidy levels began to taper off, and the competitive focus shifted gradually toward order quality and fulfillment efficiency.

For JD, capturing this market share has come at a significant cost. While JD does not disclose delivery-specific losses, its "new business" segment — which includes JD Delivery, Jingxi, JD Property, and select overseas operations — posted an operating loss of 9.854 billion yuan in the second quarter, a notable improvement from the 14.777 billion yuan loss recorded a year earlier. Management has confirmed that delivery losses narrowed by more than 50% year-over-year.

This is precisely why order volume has become such a critical metric. It not only determines how much market share JD has secured in the delivery space, but also serves as a crucial denominator for measuring per-order losses and subsidy efficiency.

How Are Split Orders Actually Counted?

Notably, the practice of inflating order counts through order-splitting is not new to the delivery wars. Media reports from November last year suggested that Taobao Flash Purchase employed a similar strategy during the early stages of its delivery offensive. A regional business manager from Taobao Flash Purchase's East China division revealed that, when faced with large-ticket orders, the prevailing approach was to split them whenever possible, guiding users to place multiple separate transactions to boost order totals. It was only after the operational focus shifted from chasing raw order numbers to prioritizing high-value orders that the emphasis on splitting subsided.

This context makes the order-splitting phenomenon now emerging on JD's platform all the more concerning. Based solely on screenshots shared by consumers and riders, there is as yet no proof that JD is artificially inflating its order volume through such tactics. The crux remains whether split sub-orders are included in the operational statistics JD uses in its external reporting.

If sub-orders are indeed counted as independent orders, then metrics such as order volume, order density, and per-unit costs would all be affected. In that scenario, the narrative JD has presented of "order growth, cost reduction, and loss improvement" would warrant a fresh appraisal of its underlying substance.

It is worth noting that the capital markets have not been particularly sanguine about JD's growth prospects. Following the release of its second-quarter earnings in mid-August, JD's Hong Kong-listed shares plunged more than 10% in a single day. Over the period from August 10 to September 9, the stock retreated by roughly 17% cumulatively.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10