In a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz faces a sustained blockade amid ongoing conflict, Brent crude futures could average $87 per barrel next year, according to a research note from JPMorgan’s commodity analysts led by head of commodity research Natasha Kaneva.

The bank’s base case forecast puts Brent’s average at $63 per barrel in 2025, assuming a state of global peace throughout the year. However, the team notes that the duration of any conflict could extend significantly beyond the assumptions embedded in that baseline projection.

Despite the potential for a longer disruption in the region’s key shipping lane, the analysts argue that oil prices do not necessarily need to surge dramatically from current levels to reflect such risks.

JPMorgan’s assessment highlights that even under a "perpetual conflict" scenario with effectively closed passage through the strait, the impact on next year’s average price would remain relatively contained compared to the immediate market reaction that might be expected.